Faced with a baby boom, Vietnam is again planning to prohibit couples from having more than two children. This past week, the cabinet agreed upon a draft amendment ordering a two-child norm that will become law if approved by the national assembly.

Sanctions for flouting the policy were not outlined, but in the past, families were punished with pay cuts and other penalties at work, while Communist party members suffered reprimands or even expulsion.

The nation first introduced a two-child policy in the 1960s. Whilst the plan was terminated in 2003, the one-party state’s rulers have since encouraged couples to limit themselves to small families so as to adequately care for them.

However, a spike in births this year to couples that already have two children has caused official alarm. In a 10% rise on last year, 93,000 babies were born in the first nine months of 2008.

The government in the nation of 86 million people – two thirds of whom are under 35 – fears a population explosion will knock its economic growth off track and strain health and education services.

“The demographic boom is damaging the country’s sustainable development,” said Duong Quoc Trong, of Vietnam’s population and family planning office.

Yet critics suggest a young population is vital for Vietnam’s economic success and point to falling rates of growth and fertility over the past six years. The UN Population Fund (UNFPA) has expressed confusion over the regressive step, as the country’s fertility levels had already fallen below replacement rates.

“In Vietnam now life expectancy is rising, the fertility rate is decreasing and in the next 20 years many people will be in the senior group,” said Tran Thi Van, of UNFPA. “If there’s not a sufficient labour force as the population is ageing, the country will face a lot of problems.”

On average, couples already have small families, but abortions and ultra-sound tests are frequently used to determine the sex of children, ensuring they have at least one boy to meet cultural expectations.

The male-female ratio climbed to 112:100 last year compared with the international average of slightly fewer male births.